Leaders push toward Ukraine loan deal as compromise comes into view

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BRUSSELS — Twelve hours into a make-or-break summit in Brussels, national leaders and senior EU officials were still trying to resolve their differences over how to fund Ukraine — as diplomats became more optimistic that a deal will be done.

Governments have spent days warning there was a massive risk of failure to get agreement to underwrite a €210 billion loan for Kyiv.

But by 10.30 p.m. on Thursday, when leaders were presented with the latest compromise text, some officials talked cautiously of progress. Four senior EU officials with knowledge of the deliberations predicted that a deal could be done in the early hours of Friday.

For weeks, politicians have been unable to agree on which version of a financing plan they want. Belgium, in particular, has been opposed to the main plan of using Russian assets frozen in Europe. It hosts the bulk of the funds and fears it is especially exposed to legal action or reprisals from Moscow.

The document that leaders were considering is intended to allay Belgium’s concerns that it won’t be protected by fellow EU countries if the Kremlin claws back the frozen assets.

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever has repeatedly asked for unlimited financial guarantees. Most other EU governments have pushed back, however, refusing to offer what they see as a “blank check.”

The most sensitive part of the latest text, seen by POLITICO, is that EU governments would have to offer Belgium, once the scheme is up and running, “full [and uncapped] solidarity and risk-sharing.” (The square brackets mean that this part of the text is still up for negotiation.)

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she would “not leave the summit without a solution.” | Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images

Any deal was always going to be easier said than done. Agreeing on how to pay for the loan has been a nut that’s proved nearly impossible to crack in the run-up to the summit despite ― or perhaps because of ― almost non-stop diplomatic back-channelling since leaders failed at the first attempt at a summit two months ago.

Leaders ripped up their plans almost immediately on Thursday morning. They decided to discuss minor items on their agenda ― including EU enlargement and the bloc’s next seven-year budget ― to allow their aides to get down to business on Ukraine throughout the day.

The EU didn’t “want leaders to be wasting time in putting a comma here or a full stop there, but to get on with agreeing the one big thing that still requires a decision,” a senior EU official said.

Leaders’ sherpas — their most trusted aides — held discussions in small groups behind closed doors while separately technical-level envoys were tasked with redrafting the proposals.

While that was going on, the prime ministers and presidents left the main summit table to drop in and out of these smaller huddles. They took an unscheduled break after lunch to check in on progress with their teams.

Running out of money

As the day started, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen insisted she would “not leave the summit without a solution.”

Despite weeks of painstaking negotiations over the assets, efforts to bring Belgium around appeared to be backfiring this week, according to officials. The country adamantly opposes using the Russian money held by Euroclear in Brussels, and has now attracted allies, including Italy, the bloc’s third-largest country.

The so-called frugal countries reject any alternative plan to the assets, such as raising a joint loan between all EU countries. That idea has for years been anathema to the northern member countries, who have been unwilling to underwrite bonds for highly indebted southern countries. Germany and its allies warn there is still no alternative to targeting the Euroclear money.

A deal is urgent because without it, Ukraine will run out of money in April and will be forced to cut spending, four years into its war with Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed the urgency of the decision to be made at the summit, Dec. 18, 2025. | Pool picture provided by the European Council/Anadolu via Getty Images

“The decision must be made by the end of this year,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters at the summit, adding that his country would have to begin reducing the number of drones it produces if the EU money fails to materialize.

Diplomats and officials who spoke to POLITICO insisted the Russian assets proposal was the only option on the table.

Part of the problem is managing relations with Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, who has won domestic plaudits for his stance. Three diplomats with knowledge of the talks said they feared the Flemish nationalist has reached a point where he cannot back down and will need to show he has won major concessions.

“The question then is whether De Wever has made the mistake of positioning himself to be staunchly against the deal,” to the point where he can’t turn it down despite securing major concessions, said an EU diplomat.

Hungary’s veto

The Commission, which has taken the lead on drafting the texts, held direct talks with Belgium Thursday in an effort to reassure the country that sufficient protections and risk-sharing measures are in place. But, at the same time, Belgium, Italy and others who have voiced concerns about the loan began a guerilla offensive to try to build consensus in favor of the EU issuing joint debt to finance Ukraine, diplomats said.

Pursuing the join debt option requires unanimity — meaning that Hungary’s pro-Russia Prime Minister Viktor Orbán could veto the scheme.

Supporting Kyiv with joint debt “a very bad alternative,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda told reporters. “It would require unanimity … and that could of course potentially run into resistance from Hungary.”

“There is talk in the corridors that Hungary is floating some proposals.”

European Council President António Costa has been unequivocal that a decision will be taken before anyone can leave for the holidays.

“Costa is a master of exhaustion tactics,” said a senior diplomat. “You’ll be locked in meetings till very late at night and he’ll say ‘let’s have breakfast,’ making it clear there’s no end in sight until there’s a deal. And when people are running around with pieces of paper, it’s hard to say no to anything.”